[SMM Analysis: Primary Lead Production Growth in August Fell Short of Expectations, More Smelters Scheduled Maintenance in September]

SMM, August 29: China's primary lead production edged up in August 2025, rising 0.32 percentage points MoM and 2.92 percentage points YoY. Cumulative production from January to August increased 8.23 percentage points YoY.

According to sources, medium and large primary lead smelters in central, northern, and east China gradually resumed operations after maintenance in August, contributing to expected supply growth. However, unexpected production cuts occurred in some smelters in northern, northeastern, and southern regions due to maintenance and ore undersupply, offsetting the overall output increase. As a result, August's production growth fell short of expectations.

Looking ahead to September, primary lead smelters face more maintenance schedules, particularly at large facilities in central China, which may become the primary drag on production. Meanwhile, production resumptions at smelters in northeastern and northern regions will partially offset the decline. SMM forecasts a 1.3 percentage point MoM drop in primary lead output for September.

Additionally, lead concentrate demand remained robust from August to September, with smelters aggressively competing for supply. Lead concentrate TCs continued to slide, with SMM's September import ore Pb60 monthly TC quoted at -110~(-70)/dmt, down $30/dmt MoM. Transactions around -150/dmt also increased, signaling higher smelting costs and squeezed profits, which dampened production enthusiasm. Some smelters planning maintenance noted they had stockpiled sufficient crude lead inventories, minimizing the impact of refining system shutdowns on primary lead output.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are derived from market exchanges, SMM's proprietary database model, and processed by SMM for reference only, not as decision-making advice.